If your argument is not supported by science, ...
get a magician to perform trickery and deception.
Whenever I am asked why don't I attempt to claim the Randi Million Dollar Prize or a sceptic has to resort to citing a 'test' by a magician to support his case, it usually means one thing. He now needs the performance of an illusionist to do what he has discovered that science is unable to do. Magicians have no compunction about violating scientific rules. For magicians, suggestion, psychology, misdirection, deception, showmanship, hidden technology, editing media are essential to get the desired results. This makes great entertainment, but in the wrong hands it becomes prejudice masquerading as science. If you believe a magician's tricks to be real evidence, you have been taken for a fool.
Who wants to be a Randi millionaire?
The James Randi ‘Educational’ Foundation offers a million dollars to anyone who can show evidence of powers that cannot be explained by known scientific laws. On the face of it, this seems a reasonable challenge. However, Randi has a hidden agenda. Though there is a huge amount of (albeit) anecodotal evidence[1] questioning his motives and methods, it is my personal experience that has convinced me that Randi, the magician would do everything in his considerable power to prevent a good applicant receiving a fair opportunity. As he used to say, you decide...
"I can go into a lab and fool the rear ends off any group of scientists." James Randi [2]
James Randi Show - bad science and not credible magic
In the mid 80s I was contacted by a researcher who wanted to know if I wished to appear on the James Randi TV show and do an experiment involving astrology. I was excited at the prospect. However, the experiment involved a spurious technique for matching Sun Signs. It is something I would never use as an astrologer. I told the researcher it would not possibly work, but that I could devise a test that could work. The researcher was not interested and asked if I knew an astrologer who would perform the spoof test.
Another astrologer, Carole Golder, took my place and as expected failed. She told me that she knew it wouldn't work but was delighted to be on national television!
So my experience left me with a strong impression that Randi the magician, plays according to his rules and his agenda is for entertainment and reinforcement of his sceptical bias.
Randi holds all the Aces
Since writing this article, I reconsidered the Randi challenge. Perhaps, his researcher was out of line and Randi was the victim of TV execs looking for entertainment rather than the truth. So I began to wonder if it might really be a genuine opportunity to demonstrate astrology using a test (where I was involved in the design) to a group of sceptics. However, what I discovered was that contesting the Million Dollar Challenge is like playing a game of cards where Randi holds all the Aces ... some are up his sleeve.
Randi's claims that he can fool any group of scientists, his admission that he suffers from abysmal ignorance of statistics and his lack of scientific training or indeed any higher education, makes him wholly unsuitable for involvement or arbitration in objective tests especially those that put an individual’s career and reputation at risk.
But despite the problem of trust, which has put off most professional
astrologers, the JREF terms are created in a way that deters anyone other than
someone seeking a publicity stunt.
- To demonstrate Randi's unreasonably high levels of proof, requires huge sample sizes and costly research.
Randi insists on results that are much higher than generally accepted in scientific research. Scientific convention operates with P-values of less than 0.05 for results to be considered statistically significant.
[3] Candidates for the test claim that Randi required P-values ranging from < 0.005 to <= 0.0000001! [4]
Now you may argue that it is only fair to expect a claimant to produce results which are at least a million to one before the Randi Foundation forks out $1,000,000 - even if their rules are more demanding than tests required before releasing a powerful drug onto the market. However, astrological conclusions (as in any field that involves the human mind and behaviour) work with probabilities. [3] So to show solid results to the level of significance required, astrological tests must have vast sample sizes and in each case the horoscope data must be analyzed. The costs of such tests could make the prize money look like petty cash and are beyond the budget of almost every astrologer or astrological organisation.
- The Challenge has a procedural problem with astrology. Randi is more interested in
performance than scientific or statistical evidence. So while he can test an amateur who claims to guess people’s Sun signs (which is not what professional astrologers do), Randi cannot (and I believe will not) address considered analysis and large scale data of the type that are [5]required to test astrology.
- Randi’s ‘independently qualified
panel’ who judge the tests are about as independent as a court of Ayatollahs
assessing an educated woman’s intelligence! Last time I checked, they are all senior
members of CSICOP (renamed CSI) who are, as most intelligent people now realize, a bunch of men[6] whose main 'achievement' is their dedicated attempts to quash and debunk anything metaphysical until science proves them wrong.
To find out more about the unrealistic and unacceptable demands[6] of the Randi Test see The Myth of the Million Dollar Challenge. As far as astrology is concerned,
unless they change the rules and the culture, Randi’s challenge is an irrelevant charade. But
then it makes economic sense to protect their million bucks with a subject like
astrology that has a scientific basis.
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[1]
"I don’t take the prize seriously, and above all I don’t trust Randi since I’ve found him to be dishonest...He is not a scientist, has no scientific credentials, and is essentially a showman and an expert in deception". ~ Rupert Sheldrake, PhD. biochemist, plant physiologist & author [Quote Source]
[2] The Science of Star Wars ~ Cavelos, Jeanne [2000 p.220]
[3] What is a P-value? ~ Dr Ronald Thisted. [University of Chicago 1998 & 2020]
[4]It appears that the JREF has responded to the article exposing the Myth of the Million Dollar Challenge by agreeing to reduce the odds to 1 in 100 for the preliminary test and 1 in 100,000 for the main challenge.
[5]
An astrologer cannot predict that someone will be a medical doctor as genetic inheritance, environmental factors and free-will come into the mix. Over a number of charts, similar patterns appear and this may coincide with success in the healing profession. Some may claim to have long desired to work in the field. Some might never have considered using their latent talent because 'I had to follow into the family business'.
[6]"My first approach [to Randi] was made because I thought the prize might be achieved by the Gauquelin planetary effect, a statistical "paranormal" or "neo-astrological" effect, with which I was very familiar as researcher. The problem was that decisions regarding the sample which would amount to 1000 natal charts was dependent on much informed thought, and Randi didn't know how to deal with the conditions. So the correspondence came to an end." ~ Suitbert Ertel, Professor Emeritus of Georg-August University of Göttingen [Quote Source]
[5]In my experience, most sceptics are male. However, an organisation like CSI will presumably include women even if it is as a token gesture.
[6]JREF terms include: - JREF can use all data (including photos) freely - so your image and name could be used as part of an ad campaign or publicity material to promote JREF for an unlimited period.
- Applicant surrenders any and all rights to legal action against Randi or the JREF.
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Why it is no longer acceptable to say astrology is rubbish on a scientific basis.
Robert Currey
www.twitter.com/RobertCurrey
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