At the time of writing (9 July 2004) it's about 11 days since the transfer of power in Iraq and not much seems to have happened! Given the instability and violence in the country at present, the current situation seems a bit phoney, and it can only be a matter of time before it all kicks in again. By the time anyone gets to read this article therefore, some of my predictions will either have happened or not happened, so I'll either look foolish or wonderfully insightful (or just lucky!) I reckon it's only a matter of days, however, until telling events begin to occur, due to Saturn passing over Mercury, the Ruler of the Chart, on 16th July (see later).

So let's begin with the Chart for the Handover of Power, at 10:26am on 28 June 2004. (See below). I had to enter the time as 9:26, because Iraq was on summer time, which my software didn't take into account. This Chart is obviously also a Chart for the new Iraq.

What immediately seems to leap out is the Watery Grand Trine involving the Sun (the Government), the Moon (the People), the South Node, Uranus and the DESC. This feature is very all-encompassing, and I interpret it to mean that Revolution/Overthrow (Uranus) can very easily (Grand Trine, South Node) happen. I find this quite striking, that the astrology of the situation is straightaway so graphically descriptive of what seems obvious to any outside observer. Uranus in Pisces in the 7th, conjunct the DESC, suggests that the instability in the country has a lot to do with outsiders/enemies who (as Pisceans) see themselves as 'Redeemers', whether they are Americans or Islamic Jihadists. It also suggests that any future Revolution is also going to involve non-Iraqis (the 7th House is the House of Open Enemies).

An interesting side issue here is Mr bin Laden, who according to one Chart has the Sun at 20 Pisces (in the new Iraq's 7th House, that of Open Enemies) and Mars at 25 Taurus, in the new Iraq's 9th House. Jihad, or what? So it's quite possible that he has a hand in the current situation. George Bush did say that there was a connection between Iraq and bin Laden, didn't he?

The next feature of the Chart that makes immediate sense is Jupiter square to Pluto in Sag, and opposite Uranus: revolutionary fundamentalist Islam is an obvious interpretation. Islamic fundamentalism doesn't (yet) rule in Iraq, so I interpret the fundamentalist revolution in the inception Chart as American: George Bush seems just as closed minded and aggressive about his own values as any Muslim extremist. GW's 2nd House Mars is at 9 Virgo, conjunct the Iraqi Jupiter and opposite its Uranus. QED!

While we're on the subject of George Bush, there is an almost eerily strong connection between his Chart and that of the new Iraq: his Mars conjuncts the Iraqi ASC (and Jupiter, all in Virgo), and the Iraqi Mars conjuncts his ASC (and Pluto/Mercury, all in Leo). So there is obviously an intensely personal connection here (which is why I've never bought the mantra that the war was "all about oil"). And, in relation to the new Iraq, the astrology clearly shows GW's ability to take decisive action (Mars) in the service (Virgo) of the transformation of evil forces (Pluto rising)….or does it reveal the new Iraq to be the military outcome (Mars) of George Bush's ability to create collective scapegoats (Pluto rising)?

Back to Jupiter. It is in the 1st House, and is I think therefore one indicator (along with the Sun) of the new ruling body in Iraq. This body will try to create order (Virgo), but it is square to Pluto and will therefore have great difficulty exercising power. It is opposite Uranus, and will therefore be continuously de-stabilised by revolutionary forces. Again, all this seems clear to an outside observer. (And Uranus has now clearly emerged as a central feature of this Chart.)

The third feature of the Chart that I want to mention is what's going on in the 11th House, which contains the Sun, Saturn, Mercury and Mars. This seems to reflect the new Iraqi government's heavy reliance on friends - and in particular, their militaries (Mars in the 11th, which as mentioned conjuncts GW's ASC/Mercury/Pluto). Friends, at any rate, to the new government, but not to the people: Mars is square to the Moon. The Americans would do well to be aware of this. And the British. And any other nations attempting to help by military means.

And then there is Mercury, also in the 11th. Mercury is the Chart ruler. In traditional astrology, the House that the Ruler is in gives the quality through which the personality functions. In this case, it simply adds to the extent to which the new Iraq is dependent on its 'friends'. But it is not a happy Mercury, being conjunct Saturn and opposite Chiron. If it were a well-established government, these aspects might work to its advantage, but Saturn and youth is not an easy combination, and the opposition to Chiron indicates what most of us can see anyway: that this new government is inherently inadequate and damaged.

The final feature I want to look at is the IC at 29 Scorpio along with 4th House Pluto. This configuration describes the savagery and bloodshed surrounding Iraq's past, the beginning of the new Iraq, and the probable circumstances of the ending of this new incarnation. It indicates as well the secrecy surrounding the transfer of power.

Pluto also describes the forces that 1st House Jupiter, the ruling body that it squares, has to contend with. By sign (Sag) Pluto suggests the Islamic Jihadists, and by House (the 4th) it suggests the remnants of the old regime. As I was writing this, the television news announced that some Saddam loyalists had gone over to the Jihadists, bringing Pluto by Sign and by House together!

Before I move on to try and peer into the future, it is worth taking a quick look at the Composite Chart for the old Iraq (14 July 1958, 7am Baghdad) and the new Iraq. The obvious feature here is the Sun at 14 Cancer, closely conjunct the US (and George Bush's) Sun at 13 Cancer, showing how much the transition from old to new Iraq was a product of American Presidential policy.

But what I find of particular interest is Uranus, which is on the MC (a very public overthrow connecting the 2 regimes), and in Taurus - oil (material wealth) was clearly an important factor. Uranus is also at the apex of a yod involving Neptune and Pluto. The yod suggests a fated event, as does the presence of all 3 outer planets - unstoppable collective forces. So the end of Saddam's regime was a doubly fated event. The finger of God indeed (well George Bush thought so, at any rate!) There did seem at the time to have been nothing anyone could have done or said to have stopped the American invasion. Bush was implacable, and Saddam was unyielding. Doubly-fated.

So it's prediction time! This is not an easy matter, because the new Iraq does not exactly have a well-established government running along predictable lines. It is very new, very precarious and unstable, surviving only through American backing and subject to attack from any number of factions. At the same time, I've been able to dig up quite a lot (I think!) from the coming transits.

The 1st significant transit seems to be Saturn passing over the Chart Ruler, Mercury, on 16th July 2004. This is when I think we will start to see the first discernible shape of the new government: natal Mercury conjunct natal Saturn and opposite natal Chiron will be kicked into manifestation, and its limited, damaged nature will become apparent. This is backed up strongly by the Chart for the moment of the Transit (22:17, 16 July 2004, Baghdad), which has a Sun, Moon, Saturn conjunction all opposite Chiron. More specifically, Chiron will be in the 11th in Capricorn, possibly suggesting that the damage will be done through Iraq's friends (11th House, i.e. the Americans), being revealed as the real government (Capricorn).

The next significant transit is a series: that of Mercury, the Ruler, crossing the ASC 3 times between late July and early September 2004. I find these ones harder to interpret with confidence. There is first of all the overall meaning of the Transit which could be to do with the new government's reliance on its friends and allies becoming clearer - a related theme to the above Saturn Transit.

Then there is the Chart for the moment of each crossing. A common theme for each of these is that Mercury will be opposite Uranus. As we have seen, Uranus is important in this Chart. So continued instability would seem to be one obvious interpretation.

The 1st Mercury/ASC crossing, on 28 July at 11:57 has Sun conjunct MC in Leo, which might suggest the new government trying to make itself seen, and through military means, due to Mars also being in the 10th. But at the same time there will be a T-Square of Moon, Venus, Pluto and Jupiter, suggesting a bloody struggle for the people - and the women of Iraq - with Islamic Jihadists. The new power struggle will have begun. The 2nd crossing, on 22 Aug at 3:57, has Sun opposite Uranus, indicating that the new government itself is beginning to be under serious threat of overthrow. And the 3rd crossing on 12 Sept at 16:32 has Sun conjunct Mars and Jupiter and opposite Pluto. The struggle for who governs Iraq is well and truly under way. The Moon will also be opposite Uranus, indicative of the unrest and instability this will bring to the wider population.

Given the importance of Uranus for Iraq, an obvious transit to look at next is the Uranus Return next February, when Uranus will again be at 6 degrees 40 minutes Pisces. One might expect the revolutionary potential of the natal Chart to be fulfilled at this point. And what do we find (23 Feb 2005, 23:20)? Sun and Mercury conjunct Uranus, Moon opposite Uranus. The new government is, I think, quite likely to fall around this time, despite the American presence. Moreover, the Sun (the government) will be at its most invisible in the 4th, and the people will be at their most visible in the 10th, suggesting a popular element to this overthrow. This Moon is Trine to Pluto in Sag, indicating perhaps an empowered Islamicised populace. If we view the Americans as the DESC in the Handover Chart at 2.40 Pisces, then they will also be in the 4th House, conjunct the Sun and Uranus.

All this could go a number of ways. What does seem pretty likely is some sort of overthrow, or diminishing, of the new government next February. The American role will change substantially, probably becoming much less visible (4th House). It is also possible that they may suddenly leave at this time - 4th House is endings, after all- but for political reasons this may well not be possible.

Jupiter is square to Pluto in the natal Chart, suggestive as we have said of the new government's struggle to govern, as well as of the religious fundamentalist element in the new Iraq. In late 2007 Jupiter will have moved on to conjunct the natal Pluto, at which point it is likely that the chickens will come home to roost for both aspects of this natal square: the American-backed government, in whatever form it is by then, may well lose power entirely, and fundamentalist Islam may take over.

For more information we can look at the Chart for the moment of the Jupiter/Pluto Transit (5 Nov 2007, 10:42), and what do we find? The Moon (the People) is on the 9th House Cusp in a T-Square with Uranus on the one hand, and a Jupiter-Pluto conjunction in Sag on the other. Say no more! Meanwhile the Sun is in a Grand Trine with Uranus and Mars: the government will be violently overthrown with great ease. The Sun is also square to Neptune - it will simply dissolve.

To back this up further there is the Iraq Solar Return Chart for 2007 (29 June, 2:37). Here we have the Moon in 7th House Sag, conjunct Jupiter and Pluto and square to guess what? Yes, you've got it - Uranus! With Moon and Jupiter being in the 7th, the pressure may well be coming from non-Iraqis. So these 2 Charts together seem pretty indicative of an Islamic Revolution that year.

And what about the Americans? In the Jupiter-Pluto Transit Chart, Mars it at 11 Cancer in the 7th, conjunct the DESC. One interpretation of this is aggression (Mars) towards outsiders (7th) in the name of the homeland (Cancer). With the US Sun being at 13 Cancer, and the Chart Mars being at 11 Cancer, the Americans could easily be indicated here.

I tried a number of Composite Charts between the US Sibly Chart and various Iraqi Solar Return Charts, and the most convincing one I got was with the Solar Return Chart of 2007. This has Neptune within 3 minutes of the MC at just over 7 degrees Sag. This strongly indicates a dissolution of their relationship during that year. It is also within 5 degrees of the US ASC. And the Sun at 10 Cancer is within 3 degrees of the US Sun and is opposite Pluto at 12 Capricorn: a strong challenge to US power. So this Chart is pretty strong, and adds further to the case for 2007 being the crucial year.

So we have looked at the period up to Feb 2005, and at the latter part of 2007. What about between then? I feel reluctant to try to say much about this period. In a way, the predictions so far make sense from what we know of Iraq: that is, it won't take long before serious trouble kicks in again, and the weakness of the new government becomes clear, and is possibly toppled. Eventually, there is a good chance that an Islamic Revolution will occur. What I've done is to apply possible dates to these events. What goes on between the beginning and end of this 3-year period is hard to be specific about.

One set of transits describes part of this period: the Charts for the 3 moments when Uranus exactly opposes natal Jupiter, between April 2006 and Feb 2007. The basic tendency of this Transit can be seen as creating yet more instability around the governing body. It may fall a number of times during this period. The Transit finishes in early 2007, and its overall effect may be to drive home the terminal instability of any American-backed government, setting the stage for an Islamic Revolution later that year.

What about the Charts for each crossing of Uranus opposite Jupiter? In the first one we see Pluto on the ASC opposite Mars, and Jupiter square to Neptune; in the 2nd Chart we see Sun opposite Uranus, Pluto on the DESC, and Neptune on the MC square to the Moon and Jupiter; and in the 3rd Chart we see Jupiter square to Uranus, and Sun conjunct Neptune on the DESC opposite the Moon on the ASC.

All of these Charts look pretty troubled and pretty significant, given what we know of the current situation. And no doubt an astrological case could be made for an Islamic Revolution during that period, or even at the Uranus Return next February. However, I think that tr Jupiter conjunct natal Pluto in late 2007 is symbolically too powerful to ignore easily, especially when backed up with the Solar Return Chart for that year, and the US/Iraq Solar Return Composite for 2007. Astrology apart, this makes more sense politically, as it would be a huge humiliation for the Americans to admit defeat and leave the country to the Jihadists. There may well be no avoiding this eventually, but they are bound to hang on for as long as they can in the hope that this won't be their legacy.

N.B. Times given for all Charts for future events do not take into account Iraqi Summer Time. They are, however, still accurate because their relationship to GMT remains correct.